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To the editor:
While most of us can agree that it's important for reputable newspapers to
publish a diversity of opinions on important subjects, there is no obligation to
publish what amounts to pure crack pottery. I am writing today about the
recent opinion piece by Jack Loesch, in which he refers to the COVID-19
virus as a hoax. He is utterly wrong.
Scientists are learning as we go, making important findings on the fly as the
world battles a virus never seen before.With the rapid spread of infections,
scientists began with a base of knowledge from their experience with other
coronaviruses and other infectious diseases. They made great efforts to quickly
craft plans to battle something they had never dealt with before. There were
lessons from previous coronavirus outbreaks - for example SARS and
MERS, which had high fatality rates but which turned out to be less contagious.
By acting quickly, the scientific community was able to snuff out those
infections before they spread widely. COVID-19, on the other hand, turned
out to be far more contagious but with what appears so far to be a yet undefined
but lower fatality rate.Most importantly, there was no time to study the
virus extensively before doing anything - it was clear from early cases that
the virus had deadly consequences and quick action was required.
First, on his points about tests he notes that Gov. DeWine recently had a
positive test and then later tested negative.Medical testing is a complex subject,
but in summary there are some tests which are highly accurate and some
less so. There are tradeoffs between speed, availability, and cost. The governor
first had an antigen test, which is quick and convenient but less accurate
that the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test he had later. The PCR test is
very highly accurate, but the testing takes much more time, is less widely
available because of capacity constraints, and is more costly. Quick turnarounds
on the PCR tests seem to be available to preferred groups, including
government officials and athletes, but for the general public the wait times too
often make the results nearly useless for treatment and contact tracing.
Second, Loesch notes that the number of cases is fiction. No doubt we will
never know exactly how many people have been infected. There are many
people who have been infected who have never shown symptoms and so were
never tested and never show up in the statistics. He notes that there are false
positive test results, though he neglects to consider that there may also be false
negative results. In addition, there have been many instances in which testing
was not available, but circumstances such as an infected member of the same
household strongly indicate that the individual had the same infection. Some
states have done a better job than others in reporting positive test results, hospitalizations,
and deaths. In some states there is political pressure on the individuals
who are supplying the data, with an unknown impact. State by state
reporting is indeed a patchwork of approaches, but at a macro level, these are
undoubtedly directionally correct and so are useful.
Third, as to the insinuation that hospitals are falsely inflating COVID-19
infection cases for financial reasons, the facts indicate otherwise. Hospital revenues
have been deeply reduced where outbreaks are high because other
needed care cannot be provided. The temptation, if you even believe that
healthcare professionals would stoop to it, would be to minimize cases in
order to maintain their normal caseload.
Finally, as to whether his readers know anyone who has been infected with
this virus, in fact I do. I know three people who have suffered severe cases of
COVID-19. Two were hospitalized and on ventilators. The third is a thirtyish
young man, otherwise quite healthy and fit, who had a very bad case which
lasted for weeks.Medical science is just now beginning to gain insight into
the potential longer-term impacts of the acute disease, and we will no doubt
learn much more as the research continues.
More than 170,000 Americans are known to have died from COVID-19.
Let's take a deep breath and consider how best to do the most good with the
least harm. Publishing crack pottery doesn't help.
SUE DENSMORE,
East Liverpool