Results of horse races don't always play out the way they're expected to, even for the most sophisticated bettors.
The rule of thumb is that about one-third of post-time favorites win. In the West Virginia Derby over the years, the ratio has been slightly higher - 34.1percent of wagering choices have been victorious. But there have been many surprising winners, too.
When Mind That Bird goes to the post in next Saturday's 40th edition of the Grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby, his odds will likely be less than even money, rendering him a prohibitive favorite. And, if so, there will be good reason for this. His 6 -length victory in the Kentucky Derby was the largest in the first jewel of the Triple Crown in 63 years.
But the Kentucky Derby is a 1-mile event. The West Virginia Derby will be run at Mountaineer Casino Racetrack & Resort at 1 1/8 miles, and this is a distance at which Mine That Bird has never won. In his only prior try at nine furlongs, in the Sunland Park Derby on March 29, he came in a fading fourth.
Major alterations have been made with Mine That Bird's running style since then. Whereas he had been a horse who either runs on or fairly close to the pace, he now closes from far back. In fact, in all three of his Triple Crown efforts he trailed the field through the opening quarter-mile.
The change in tactics resulted in a win in the Kentucky Derby, a second-place effort in the Preakness Stakes and a third-place finish in the Belmont Stakes. But all of those races were run at longer distances than the West Virginia Derby.
Could Mine That Bird be beaten next Saturday at Mountaineer? Well, there's a colt named Big Drama coming who possesses a ton of fast early foot. Big Drama finished fifth in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, but he was in second position with just an eighth of a mile remaining, and at that point was two lengths clear of Mine That Bird, who was in the midst of his closing bid.
Past performances reveal that Big Drama has never won at 1 1/8 miles, either. But he has a Grade 3 stakes triumph at the 1 1/16-mile distance, and has over $1 million in career purse earnings. If he opens up a wide early lead on Saturday, he could prove very difficult to catch.
Then there's Awesome Rhythm, who is also considered a definite West Virginia Derby starter. On June 7 at Woodbine, Awesome Rhythm drew off to an 8 -length victory in the Victoria Park Stakes, which is a 1 1/8-mile race. It was the colt's third consecutive stakes triumph, with the prior two having been achieved at 1 1/16 miles.
In all three races, Awesome Rhythm was never more than four lengths removed from the lead. It is a similar pattern to that of several recent West Virginia Derby winners, Sir Shackleton (2004), Zanjero (2007) and Ready Set (2008).
Also, interestingly, Awesome Rhythm has raced against Mine That Bird once before, and finished in front of him. This occurred on July 20 of last year in a six-furlong maiden event at Woodbine. It was the career debut for both, with Awesome Rhythm finishing third and Mine That Bird coming in fifth.
And what makes next Saturday's race even more intriguing is that the West Virginia Derby, up until this year, has primarily been a race for emerging 3-year-olds, rather than highly accomplished ones.
Assuredly, Grade 1 winners have participated in the race before. Hal's Hope won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in 2000, subsequently ran in the West Virginia Derby, and finished second. Dominican won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in 2007, ran in the West Virginia Derby 3 months later, and finished second.
But this year's West Virginia Derby represents a completely new deal - a Kentucky Derby winner taking on a relatively upstart group, with bold aspirations of pulling off an upset. The dream of achieving the equivalent of Bill Mazeroski's home run, beating the New York Yankees. For in horse racing, you see, every event is the seventh game of the World Series for somebody.
